Soldier won $410K in Polymarket bets on timing of Maduro capture, US alleges

CNBC wrote that when “a reporter noted there have been other allegations of insider trading on prediction markets about the Iran war, Trump said, ‘You know the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.’” Trump also said that he is “not happy with any of that stuff.” Polymarket said in a statement yesterday that it “identified a user trading on classified government information,” and “referred the matter to the DOJ and cooperated with their investigation. Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today’s arrest is proof the system works.” Shortly after the Maduro operation, “reports of unusual trading in Maduro-related contracts on Polymarket appeared in the press and on social media,” the DOJ said. The agency alleged that Van Dyke reacted to the reports by trying to conceal his trades. “On or about January 6, 2026, for example, Van Dyke asked Polymarket to delete his Polymarket account, falsely claiming that he had lost access to the email address to which the account had been associated,” the DOJ said. “That same day, Van Dyke changed the email registered to his cryptocurrency exchange account to an email address that was not subscribed to in his name, and which he had created on or about Dec. 14, 2025.” The DOJ press release said the combined maximum penalty of the charges is 60 years in prison, but noted that the maximums “are prescribed by Congress and provided here for informational purposes only, as any sentencing of the defendant will be determined by the judge.” The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) separately filed a civil complaint against Van Dyke, also in the Southern District of New York. The agency said it is seeking “restitution, disgorgement, civil monetary penalties, trading and registration bans, and a permanent injunction against further violations of the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations.” Van Dyke “was entrusted with confidential information about US operations and yet took action that endangered US national security and put the lives of American service members in harm’s way,” CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said. The case is “the first time the CFTC has charged insider trading involving event contracts, and the first time the CFTC has used the so-called ‘Eddie Murphy Rule’ to bring charges based on the misuse of government information,” the agency said. The Eddie Murphy rule is named after the actor because of the insider trading scheme depicted in Trading Places, which involved futures contracts for frozen concentrated orange juice.