Could China and Russia really destroy Starlink? Only with a boomerang.

Starlink has proven to be a vital advantage for the Ukrainian military since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. In some cases, Starlink has helped Ukraine extend the effective reach of its weapons, taking the fight deep into the Russian heartland. The US military, too, sees Starlink and its growing number of spinoffs as enablers for 21st century warfare. Starlink and its related constellations, like military-grade Starshield satellites, would likely give US forces an edge if the United States went to war with China or Russia today. China and Russia are working on their own versions of Starlink, but neither is close to fielding anywhere near SpaceX’s current constellation of more than 10,000 satellites. This could soon change, at least for China, which recovered its first reusable orbital-class rocket booster following a launch earlier this month. Mastering rocket reuse will allow Chinese companies to ramp up their launch cadence, unlocking new capacity for deploying mega-constellations. It’s not hard to understand Russian and Chinese motivations for degrading or destroying Starlink, one former senior US military space official told Ars. “We and our allies will likely have similar concerns and discussions when China fields its Starlink-like constellation in the next few years, which certainly would have military applications,” the former official said. “Such capabilities are becoming more important, necessary, and critical to modern warfare.” “China, in particular, has been concerned about Starlink for years, from an economic perspective as well as potential national security perspectives,” said Charles Galbreath, a retired Space Force colonel now serving as director and senior resident fellow for space studies at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, a Washington, DC, area think tank. “The collaboration between China and Russia on ways to counter it, that is more troubling than either one of them looking at it independently,” Galbreath told Ars. So, how might China and Russia go about countering Starlink? The Chinese team proposed three possible actions in an “escalation ladder,” starting with legal and diplomatic measures aimed at whipping up international pressure against further expansions of Starlink on the grounds of collision risks in LEO. The next step is more technical, with coordinated filings with international regulatory bodies for frequency bands and orbital slots to limit SpaceX’s ability to grow Starlink. At the same time, the escalation ladder proposes using electromagnetic jamming of Starlink to block it in certain regions. Finally, the coup de grâce would be the “physical destruction” of Starlink through a cyber war and anti-satellite weapons. Reporters at The Insider, Der Spiegel, and Le Monde suggested this might involve a cloud of high-density projectiles that could destroy Starlink satellites upon collision. The presentation by the Chinese CASC researchers didn’t specify the means of such an attack. “There are signs the plans have advanced considerably since the 2023 conference,” the reporters wrote in the story published last week. Indeed, the escalation ladder describes some things that are already happening. “I do think we are a couple rungs up that ladder,” Galbreath said. “The fact that they are choosing to head down the path of military options here, I think, speaks volumes about where they think we are in our relative competition with one another.” Chinese media have reported that engineers developed a powerful ground-based microwave weapon that could threaten satellites in LEO, including Starlinks. Russia has technology designed to jam Starlink receivers on the ground. NATO intelligence services are monitoring Russia’s work on a concept to eject small pellets into a satellite constellation’s orbit. China and Russia aren’t alone. The US Space Force recently unveiled its own ground-based satellite jammer. And there’s Russia’s reported plan to place a nuclear weapon in orbit, a violation of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967. If Russia moves in this direction, a nuclear detonation in low-Earth orbit could be the ultimate Starlink killer. The problem is that it would spread clouds of radiation throughout near-Earth space, rendering much of low Earth orbit unusable for any space mission for months or years. The consequences of such an event would not only cripple Starlink and US satellite networks but also those of Russia and China themselves. “Any mission set that you can execute from low-Earth orbit becomes at risk by the mechanisms or means that China and Russia could develop to counter SpaceX and Starlink,” Galbreath said. “Communications, obviously. Imagery, absolutely. When you think of a constellation like Planet’s Dove (commercial imaging) constellation, that could become at risk as well.” The same goes for the Pentagon’s proposed Golden Dome missile shield and the emerging use of satellites for battlefield targeting. “All of those become at risk if China and Russia develop a successful means of countering Starlink,” Galbreath said.