Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake

Polymarket is seeking the CFTC’s permission to bring its main exchange back to the US, but also offers a more limited, US-regulated version of its trading service through a mobile app. Polymarket launched the app last year after acquiring QCX, a firm that is licensed by the CFTC and now operates under the name Polymarket US. The Journal said it reviewed 1,105 videos made by 10 creators and identified fake bets totaling $1.9 million. While most of the videos were of fake bets being placed, there were 118 videos of “creators reacting to outdated footage or fake headlines suggesting they’d won.” Those 118 videos showed creators winning almost $900,000, but the bets in reality would have lost over $166,000, the report said. The Polymarket “campaign racked up more than 140 million views on TikTok, YouTube and Instagram,” the report said, citing data from analytics provider Tubular. Polymarket “hired and worked closely with” a marketing firm that enlisted a “social-media army to repost content made by 10 Polymarket creators in particular, Makihara among them,” the article said. The Journal said it reviewed “nearly 20,000 messages from a chat group for Polymarket’s online content-creating contractors, and instructional documents and videos prepared for them.” The Journal report said a person familiar with the matter confirmed that Polymarket itself built poiymarket.com. “The ‘poiymarket’ website was taken down after the Journal reached out to Polymarket for comment,” the article said. Creators told the Journal that they sent videos to Polymarket for review and that Polymarket asked for videos to be reshot if they were too obviously fake. Despite that precaution, some videos “contained short glimpses of URLs indicating the sites were test environments for Polymarket engineers.” When contacted by Ars today, Polymarket did not specifically address the WSJ’s findings but said it is conducting an audit of its promotional content. “As the world’s leading prediction market, we are committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets,” the Polymarket statement said. “We are part of a rapidly growing industry and are constantly evaluating ways to improve how we’re engaging and earning the trust of our audience. As part of that commitment, we are conducting a comprehensive audit of active promotional content to ensure it complies with our standards, as well as applicable regulatory and legal disclosure requirements.” While false and misleading promotions can be punished by the Federal Trade Commission, the Trump administration has tried to limit regulation of prediction markets. The CFTC has been suing states that try to impose strict rules on prediction markets to ensure that the entities remain under the more permissive federal regulatory scheme. Polymarket and its rival Kalshi both have Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor, and a Trump Jr.-backed venture capital firm invested in Polymarket.